April 12, 2024

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Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla prediction, odds, line: Soccer expert reveals 2022 La Liga picks, bets for May 15

4 min read
Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla prediction, odds, line: Soccer expert reveals 2022 La Liga picks, bets for May 15

Atletico Madrid seeks to clinch another top-three finish when it hosts fourth-place Sevilla in a Spanish La Liga match on Sunday at Wanda Metropolitano Stadium. Atletico (20-7-9) has finished in the top three in La Liga’s table nine straight years, but it is just one point ahead of Sevilla (17-15-4). Atletico won the title last season and in 2013-14. It has already clinched a spot in the top four by virtue of its sweep of fifth-place Real Betis. Sevilla is five points ahead of Real Betis, but it also swept Los Verdiblancos, so one point would guarantee a top-four finish. Sevilla has won the past two meetings with Atletico, including a 2-1 victory in December, but both of those games were in Seville. 

Kickoff is set for 1:30 p.m. ET in Madrid, Spain. Caesars Sportsbook lists Atletico as the -113 favorite (risk $113 to win $100) on the 90-minute money line in its latest Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla odds, with Sevilla the +380 underdog. A draw is priced at +220 and the over-under for total goals scored is set at 2.5. Before making any Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid picks, you have to see what proven soccer insider Martin Green has to say. 

After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Since then, his European soccer picks have been stunningly accurate. Green has generated almost $37,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season, and he has his finger on the pulse of the game all over the globe.

Now, Green has broken down the Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla matchup from every angle and just locked in his picks and La Liga predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid:

  • Atletico vs. Sevilla spread: Atletico -0.5 (-120)
  • Atletico vs. Sevilla over-under: 2.5 goals
  • Atletico vs. Sevilla money line: Atletico -113, Sevilla +380, Draw +220 
  • ATL: Atletico Madrid has scored at least twice in eight of its last 14 La Liga games 
  • SEV: Sevilla has played to draws in 10 of its last 16 league matches (4-10-2)

Why you should back Atletico Madrid

Atletico has lost the past two in Seville but won the last matchup in Madrid 2-0, in January of last year. The previous four meetings all ended in draws. Los Rojiblancos have been tough to beat on their home turf this season, going 12-4-2 with a plus-15 goal differential. They have tightened up on defense over the past two months after flirting with a more attack-based approach. That tactic didn’t work out as hoped, so Atletico has reverted its focus to defense. It has conceded seven goals in its past 12 league games, posting six clean sheets over that span.

Opponents aren’t getting many opportunities, with Atletico yielding fewer than 2.5 shots on target per game. It is the only team in La Liga to allow fewer than 100 on net, yielding just 89. Midfielder Marcos Llorente will be back from suspension to hound Sevilla, and Los Rojiblancos have the advantage in attack. Luis Suarez and Angel Correa have 11 goals apiece, and Matheus Cunha scored his sixth in a 2-0 win against Elche on Wednesday. Yannick Carrasco (six goals) and Antoine Griezmann (three goals, three assists) also can give defenses fits.

Why you should back Sevilla

Los Nervionenses have been the best defensive team in the league and desperately need a result. They have allowed just 29 goals in the 36 matches and lead the league with 15 draws. Yassine Bouno has a league-best 77.9 save percentage and ranks third in La Liga with 13 clean sheets. Sevilla should be able to hold possession and isn’t likely to allow many scoring opportunities. It held the ball for 55 percent of the last meeting, and Atletico had 15 shots but put just three on net. Just 28 percent of shots against Sevilla are on target, third-best in the league.

It holds the ball at a far higher rate than Atletico, keeping it an average of 59.6 percent of matches compared to Atletico’s 51.2. Sevilla also has been one of the best teams in La Liga in road matches. It has lost just three times in 18 games (6-9-3) and has allowed just 12 goals. Rafa Mir is the top scorer with nine goals, often coming off the bench. Lucas Ocampos, the No. 2 scorer with six goals, and top assist man Ivan Rakitic scored in the last meeting. Rakitic has scored four goals and set up six. Sevilla has 12 players who have scored at least two goals.

How to make Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla picks

Green has scrutinized the Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla match from every angle, and he is leaning under on the goal total. He also provides two confident best bets, including one that returns more than 2-1, and has a full breakdown of the match. He’s only sharing his expert La Liga picks at SportsLine.

So, who wins Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid in Sunday’s La Liga matchup? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see the best bets for the Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla match, all from the European soccer expert who has generated almost $37,000 for $100 bettors over the past four seasons, and find out.

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