Premier League promotion and relegation favorites, odds & updated tables in EPL and Championship
Premier League spots are worth tens — if not hundreds — of millions of dollars, so when it comes to promotion and relegation in the English top flight, everything is on the line.
More than halfway through the 2021-22 season, the battles for places in next season’s Premier League are heating up.
In the Premier League, relegation appears to be a four-team race at the moment, although three others could be sucked into the fight with any more slips. Norwich City had been bottom of the league for most of the season, but a run of results right before the January international break pulled them out of the relegation zone, at least temporarily, although everyone below them has at least one game in hand.
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In the second division Championship, there are two automatic promotion spots to the Premier League up for grabs, plus four more places in the promotion playoffs, which will decide the third team to play in the Premier League next season.
Fulham is dominating the Championship with a formidable attack that is on pace to set season-long goalscoring records. The second-division title is far from being wrapped up yet, however. The race is tight, with five teams realistically in the hunt for an automatic promotion spot, and as many as 10 more clubs with a realistic shout of making the playoff.
Premier League relegation: Which teams will go down?
For long stretches this season it appeared that Norwich City would almost certainly be headed for the drop, but on the heels of a managerial change and big results against Everton and Watford, the Canaries are one point above the relegation zone.
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Newcastle, under new ownership, spent big in the January transfer window to improve the squad and boost the club’s survival rate. The Magpies’ Jan. 22 win at Leeds United could loom large at season’s end. The win over Everton slashed Newcastle’s relegation odds from 66 percent to 48 percent.
Things are not looking too bright for Burnley, especially with star forward Chris Wood making the switch to Tyneside. But their games in hand give the Clarets a fighting chance. The Feb. 5 home 0-0 draw against fellow relegation candidate Watford will be a disappointment, but a good start for new Hornets manager Roy Hodgson.
Leeds and Everton started in a much more advantageous position with some padding, but they have looked lost at times this season and it seems highly possible that they will be sucked into the vortex. That may be exactly what’s happening to the Toffees, as new manager Frank Lampard was powerless to stop the loss to Newcastle seeing Everton’s relegation odds jump from 11 percent to 24 percent. Brentford is in a good position, but also has very little room for error against those below it.
Relegation probabilities via FiveThirtyEight.
Relegation odds via DraftKings.
| Place | Team | PTS | GP | GD | Next Match | Relegation Probability/Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Brentford | 23 | 23 | -12 | @MCI, Feb. 9 | 11{cf07cd047201b183b19c0b335dbd7d35a498f84568531c8abe8643bd3ccfd494} / +700 |
| 15 | Leeds United | 23 | 22 | -16 | @ EVE, Feb. 12 | 10{cf07cd047201b183b19c0b335dbd7d35a498f84568531c8abe8643bd3ccfd494} / +550 |
| 16 | Everton | 19 | 21 | -13 | vs. LEE, Feb. 12 | 24{cf07cd047201b183b19c0b335dbd7d35a498f84568531c8abe8643bd3ccfd494} / +400 |
| 17 | Newcastle | 18 | 22 | -20 | vs. AVL, Feb. 13 | 48{cf07cd047201b183b19c0b335dbd7d35a498f84568531c8abe8643bd3ccfd494} / +130 |
| 18* | Norwich City | 17 | 23 | -32 | vs. MCI, Feb. 12 | 81{cf07cd047201b183b19c0b335dbd7d35a498f84568531c8abe8643bd3ccfd494} / -500 |
| 19* | Watford | 15 | 22 | -18 | vs. BRI, Feb 12 | 70{cf07cd047201b183b19c0b335dbd7d35a498f84568531c8abe8643bd3ccfd494} / -330 |
| 20* | Burnley | 14 | 20 | -11 | vs. LIV, Feb. 13 | 48{cf07cd047201b183b19c0b335dbd7d35a498f84568531c8abe8643bd3ccfd494} / -200 |
* = The bottom three teams are relegated to the second tier Championship.
Championship promotion race
With three teams dropping from the Premier League, three teams must rise up to replace them.
The Championship, the second tier of organized professional soccer in England, will send its top two finishers up to the Premier League automatically. The third team is chosen via a promotion playoff, with the teams finishing 3rd through 6th qualifying for the four-team knockout tournament.
The Playoff Final is a massive spectacle, with the income generated in the Premier League proving a game changer for teams stuck in the Championship. The match is said to be worth upwards of $100 million, with the winner advancing to the Premier League and reaping the rewards of the top flight’s revenue sharing and parachute payments.
Promotion probabilities via FiveThirtyEight.
Promotion odds via DraftKings.
| Place | Team | PTS | GP | GD | Promotion Probability/Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* | Fulham | 61 | 29 | +51 | 97{cf07cd047201b183b19c0b335dbd7d35a498f84568531c8abe8643bd3ccfd494} / -5000 |
| 2* | Bournemouth | 55 | 29 | +22 | 59{cf07cd047201b183b19c0b335dbd7d35a498f84568531c8abe8643bd3ccfd494} / -220 |
| 3** | Blackburn | 53 | 31 | +12 | 25{cf07cd047201b183b19c0b335dbd7d35a498f84568531c8abe8643bd3ccfd494} / +250 |
| 4** | QPR | 52 | 29 | +13 | 26{cf07cd047201b183b19c0b335dbd7d35a498f84568531c8abe8643bd3ccfd494} / +330 |
| 5** | Huddersfield | 49 | 31 | +6 | 4{cf07cd047201b183b19c0b335dbd7d35a498f84568531c8abe8643bd3ccfd494} / +1800 |
| 6** | Nottingham Forest | 46 | 30 | +10 | 5{cf07cd047201b183b19c0b335dbd7d35a498f84568531c8abe8643bd3ccfd494} / +1400 |
| 7 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 29 | +6 | 16{cf07cd047201b183b19c0b335dbd7d35a498f84568531c8abe8643bd3ccfd494} / +400 |
| 8 | Luton Town | 45 | 29 | +8 | 10{cf07cd047201b183b19c0b335dbd7d35a498f84568531c8abe8643bd3ccfd494} / +1400 |
| 9 | West Brom | 45 | 30 | +8 | 14{cf07cd047201b183b19c0b335dbd7d35a498f84568531c8abe8643bd3ccfd494} / +225 |
| 10 | Sheffield United | 45 | 28 | +6 | 27{cf07cd047201b183b19c0b335dbd7d35a498f84568531c8abe8643bd3ccfd494} / +450 |
*The top two teams are automatically promoted to the Premier League
**Teams finishing 3rd-6th qualify for the promotion playoff
