English Premier League odds, predictions, picks: Crystal Palace
The third-to-last full matchday of the English Premier League season takes the stage this weekend, and it features some influential fixtures.
None are bigger than Saturday afternoon’s meeting between Liverpool FC and Tottenham Hotspur at Anfield, a fixture that will impact both the championship and top-four races. Elsewhere, Leicester City-Everton and Arsenal-Leeds United will impact the relegation race.
But, I’m choosing to look elsewhere for my best bets of the weekend. So, without further delay, here are my pair of plays for Matchday 36 of the Premier League season.
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Best Bet #1 – Crystal Palace Moneyline (-145) vs. Watford
Some might question the motivation for Crystal Palace here, but I believe it’s capable of an easy victory Saturday.
So far this season, manager Patrick Viera’s team has been a superb home side. Entering its meeting with Watford, Palace holds a +9.3 expected goal differential at home, the sixth-best mark in the Premier League. Additionally, positive regression could be on the way based on those performances, as the Eagles have a +8 actual goal differential through 17 home fixtures.
Palace has also dominated at home against the league’s worst sides. Through five matches against the EPL’s six worst teams by record, Palace is 2-0-3 (W-L-D), but has won all five matches on expected goals. Additionally, its attack created 1.54 xG/90 minutes in those fixtures, up from a season-long output of 1.22 xG/90, per fbref.com.
On the flip-side, Watford’s defeat to Burnley has essentially resigned it to relegation barring a complete miracle. Plus, Palace thrashed the Hornets 4-1 in the reverse fixture at Vicarage Road while winning the expected goal battle 1.3-1.2 in its worse venue.
Further, Watford has struggled to earn points at the league’s best home sides. Through eight fixtures against the EPL’s ten-best xGDiff home sides, Watford is 0-7-1 (W-L-D) and has lost all eight games on expected goals. Its defense has also allowed 1.84 xG/90 in those eight fixtures, up from a season-long average of 1.73.
For those reasons, I think you’re getting a discount on Palace and would even look to back some alternate spreads.
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Best Bet #2 – Burnley/Aston Villa Under 2.5 Goals (-135)
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
This will actually be the first meeting of the season between these sides, but I’m expecting a very sleepy match.
Away from home, Villa have created the eight-fewest expected goals in the league, per fbref.com. Plus, although Burnley’s attack has generated at least one expected goal in six straight fixtures, the level of defensive opposition has not been good. Five of those six sides are outside the top-10 in xGA/90 minutes this season, with all six ranking below Aston Villa.
That said, Burnley’s defense has done well to hold up at home. This season, the Clarets have conceded only 1.34 xG/90 minutes at Turf Moor, down a from a season-long average of 1.43 xG/90 minutes. Additionally, 11 of Burnley’s 17 home fixtures have finished under this mark, while eight of Villa’s last nine road fixtures have seen under 2.5 combined expected goals.
Plus, Burnley have kept three straight opponents under 1.2 expected goals, while Villa’s defense has kept two consecutive opponents under 0.5 of an expected goal and nine straight opponents under 1.5 expected goals.
With Villa having nothing to play for and Burnley needing to emphasize defense in a relegation battle, expect a low-scoring contest in this fixture.
